Answer:
Step-by-step explanation:
Given Probability that bid will be unsuccessful = 0.35
a) What is the prior probability that the bid will be successful ;
= 1 - P(unsuccessful) = 1 - 0.35
= 0.65
b) What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will ultimately be successful = 0.70
c) Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information ; Applying Baye's theorem ;
P(S|AI) = P(S) X P(AI|S) / P(S) X P(AI|S) + P(Unsuccessful) x P(AI|S)
= 0.65 X 0.70 / 0.65 X 0.70 + 0.35 X 0.35
= 0.6125